Midseason Analytical Assessment: ShotQ℠
|
Coaches should utilize analytical tools to provide insights on their own team and how they compare to their conference or the entire field.
What are some of these tools? One tool is DribbleHandoff’s innovative and proprietary tool to measure a team's offensive and defensive shot quality. ShotQ℠ is updated daily on this page: ShotQ Contact DribbleHandoff for consultation services for ShotQ℠. |
Is Defense Undervalued?
|
Coaches know the importance of defense. Teams spend hours practicing defense. But is defense actually valued when it comes to allocating playing time?
Ratings from play-by-play data are the best measure of value as they account for all areas of the college game that affect the score, but are not tracked by an official stat such as charges, deflections, 50-50 balls won, communication, etc. Simply looking at a player’s box score stats doesn’t tell the whole story of the player’s true impact. So how do these ratings relate to playing time? |
Ball Screens & The Battle for Space
|
The 3-point revolution has changed basketball to a game of space. Teams are looking for more ways to create separation for their best shooters. One of those ways is through ball screens, which many teams use to cause a miscommunication on defense or, at a minimum, increase the decision load.
Over the last 6 seasons, the percentage of possessions using a ball screen is up 24% in college basketball and 20% in the NBA. And the trend is accelerating. The usage rate is up about 7% year over year in college basketball in each of the last two seasons. So why are teams continuing to run more of their offense with ball screens? There are so many options available to an offense using a ball screen, that if you try to guard it all, you end up not defending anything well. Read more... |
The Demise of the Midrange
|
The story was written a few years ago when shot data was examined in the basketball analytics movement – midrange shots are low efficiency shots.
So why are some teams increasing their frequency of midrange shots? Over the last 5 years, the FG% for midrange shots remained constant at roughly 35.5% to 36%. Therefore, this shot has an expected point value of 0.71 - 0.72 points per shot. Read more.. |
The 6% Impact of Scheduling
|
Is it better to build confidence and momentum with an easier non-conference slate or is there more value in creating a tough schedule that forces the team to meet the challenge?
DribbleHandoff sought to answer the question: what is the impact of the non-conference schedule on conference performance? Read more... |
16 Over 1: How it Happened
|
|
The greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history hasn’t received enough attention. At least not how it happened.
The lazy conclusion is that De’Andre Hunter’s injury was too much for Virginia to overcome. Accounting for his absence, UMBC was still a 20+ point underdog. They won the game with incredible strategic decisions. Read more... |
Grad Transfers: A Lesson in Supply and Demand
|
Grad transfers are the new game-changers in college basketball.
Top teams lose talent to the NBA draft. Coaches can recruit months in advance to replace players they project to declare, but unanticipated draft entrants create a late demand to replenish this level of talent. At this point in the recruiting cycle, most of ESPN’s top 100 recruits have already committed. Last season, just 10 of the top 100 players remained uncommitted on April 1st. Read more... |
Why Not Press?
|
|
As the adage goes, pressure creates diamonds. This is especially true when 19 to 20 year old players are forced to make the right decision under pressure again and again. Those who overlook pressing because it doesn’t fit within their style or system need to reconsider because it provides tremendous value.
Using Synergy data from the last 6 seasons, press possessions are about .04 PPP less than a non-press possession, excluding transition. Read more... |
The Revolutionized Post-Up
|
|
Post-up shots are extremely inefficient shots. Defenses have long strategized how to defend the post: bringing double teams on the catch, on the bounce, from the baseline, etc. The additional defensive attention has made it difficult for bigs to score easily.
However, the efficiency of the shot itself is only half the equation. What about the shot that comes from a post pass? It’s an incredibly efficient shot. Read more... |
Recruit and Develop the Wright Way
|
|
One-and-done players have long dominated recruiting conversations, preseason rankings, and media attention. Teams with multiple top recruits are often predicted to win the championship while those teams lacking this talent are overlooked and undervalued.
They won’t be overlooked any longer. Jay Wright changed the game. Villanova won their 2 Championships with a rotation of upperclassman who were ranked outside of the top 10 as freshman. The numbers back Wright’s strategy... Read more... |
Xavier's Defense, Gates, & Clutch Scoring
|
|
Xavier is in position to win the regular season title for the first time since the formation of the new Big East. However, this team has even bigger goals for this season. Trevon Bluiett, JP Macura, and Sean O’Mara have made it to three consecutive NCAA tournaments – making it as far as the Elite 8 last season.
This season, they want nothing short of an NCAA Championship. Read more... |
Power Rankings (Feb 9)
|
|
1. Virginia Cavaliers
Virginia now takes the top spot in the power rankings! Last week I wrote about their offensive scheme and why De’Andre Hunter is Virginia’s zone beater. They run more screens than anyone in D1 because of their blocker-mover offense and teams may decide to start playing zone to counter their screen action. However, Bennett and the Cavaliers have a counter to everything as De’Andre Hunter has been ... Read more... |
Meet Virginia's X-Factor: De'Andre Hunter
|
|
Virginia’s defense has been incredible with Tony Bennett at the helm. In the last 5 years they have been a top 5 defense 4 times, according to KenPom. This year is historically elite – the best defense in the last 15+ years.
Yes, better than Kentucky’s 2015 defense with Towns and Cauley-Stein that won 38 games. Its not close. Read more... |
Power Rankings (Jan 25)
|
|
Now that we have a legitimate sample size to evaluate teams, I’m kicking off the start of the analytics-based Power Rankings. This column will be posted bi-weekly on DribbleHandoff.
Here we go… 1. Villanova Wildcats As I wrote a few weeks ago, Jay Wright... Read more... |
College Basketball's Untapped Goldmine
|
|
A few years ago, the NBA had an analytics movement. Similar to the one that occurred in baseball years prior, some of the long-held strategies were challenged. Teams began to prioritize efficiency over counting stats. This resulted in personnel changes; front offices began to favor stretch players and smaller lineups. Coaching staffs made strategic adjustments to improve ball movement, spacing, and pace at the expense of hero-ball.
Front offices tracked everything. One of the earliest findings was that the corner 3 has the highest expected shot ... Read more.. |
Friday Notes - #TheThing, Fouls, & Robert Williams
|
|
1. #TheThing
Marquette’s Andrew Rowsey just posted his 4th 30+ point game this Tuesday against Seton Hall. Rowsey’s teammate, Markus Howard, also has 4 of these games – combining to become the only duo in the country with 4 or more 30+ games. In the 2nd half of the game, Rowsey drew a shooting foul on a 3 with a nice shot fake. But, to Marquette fans, it’s more than just a shot fake. It's called #TheThing and he’s done it 16 times already this season. Why are teams still falling for this fake? Read more... |
Return of the Aggies
|
|
On December 18th, Texas A&M was ranked #8 in the AP poll with a 9-1 record. Since then, they lost 3 of their last 5 games and fell out of the top 25 in this week’s poll.
Despite their recent struggles, don’t dismiss the Aggies. They are a top 10 in the country at full health. It looks like Head Coach Billy Kennedy may finally have most of his rotation back for Tuesday night’s game at Kentucky. Read more... |
Trae Young: College Basketball's Superstar
|
|
Trae Young is the best offensive player in college basketball in the last 25+ years.
Let that sink in. In that time the game has seen the likes of Steph Curry, Buddy Hield, Jimmer Fredette, Adam Morrison, Glenn Robinson, and Doug McDermott – his current stats are better than all of theirs. What makes him so special? Read more... |
Jay Wright, Mikal Bridges, & Nova's "Death Lineup"
|
|
Villanova has outright dominated for the last four seasons winning 88% of their games – the highest win% of any D1 program. This is a huge jump from their win% in the three prior seasons, when they won just 55% of their games. Now, this season, they are undefeated with a 10-0 record.
Safe to say that Jay Wright’s found the formula. Wright knew that to win he needed to make strategic changes to their offense. Shooting improvements were ... Read more... |
The Land of the Three
|
|
Last year only 40 players shot better than 44.5% on at least 100 attempts from beyond the arc -roughly 1% of all D1 players. So, it’s pretty remarkable that three of them were on the same team – Marquette.
It’s not a coincidence. It’s Wojo. Marquette’s Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey, and Sam Hauser became just the third trio in the last 20 years to reach this mark from 3. Largely due to their trio’s elite shooting ... Read more... |
No Stopping Saint Joe's Funk
|
|
Freshman forward, Taylor Funk, has made a splash since arriving on Hawk Hill averaging 20.3 points and 5.3 rebounds. Although Funk has come off the bench in all three contests, he has made more 3s than the entire starting lineup combined, shooting 59% from deep on 22 attempts.
So, how good of a shooter is Funk? In a benchmarking analysis designed to forecast this season’s top shooters, his name appeared on a short list. Very short. Read more... |
How Duke Won: The DeLaurier Effect
|
|
On Tuesday, Duke beat Michigan State in a thrilling game as #1 squared off against #2 in the Champions Classic. The game not only featured a showdown of Hall of Fame coaches in Mike Krzyzewski and Tom Izzo, but also provided much anticipated matchups between several top ranked recruits. This game had it all.
It was the first time fans and scouts could see Marvin Bagley, the number one overall recruit this season and a projected top three NBA draft pick, against top tier talent. Read more... |
Winston, Ward, & Winning
|
|
Michigan State enters the 2017-18 season as a contender for the NCAA Championship led by Big 10 Preseason Player of the Year, Miles Bridges.
Bridges was one of seven players last year to average more than 16 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.5 BPG, and shoot 38% from 3 on more than 100 3PAs. However, Bridges will not be able to carry this team to a Championship by himself. Michigan State’s success will be determined by the play of Cassius Winston and ... Read more... |
The BONAfide Duo
|
|
Saint Bonaventure has the most underrated duo heading into the 2017-18 college basketball season. They also happen to be the best. It’s not close.
The duo is comprised of Jaylen Adams, a 6’2” senior point guard, and Matt Mobley, a 6’3” senior off-ball guard. Adams is a special talent. Last season, Adams became only the 4th player in the last 15 seasons to average more than 20 PPG, 6 APG, and 2 SPG. Read more... |
|
|
One game during the 2018-19 season, Mike Daum will become the all-time leading scorer in NCAA history. One of a few records the junior forward from South Dakota State will eventually claim.
So why isn’t anyone talking about him? In the last 20 years, he is only the second player to average at least 25 PPG and 8 RPG, while shooting 50+% on 2s and 40+% on 3s. The other player? KEVIN DURANT. Read more... |
"Frank Dehel has developed a MUST READ website for anyone and everyone interested in college hoops!
The numbers/trends/stats he provides on individual players and teams will have you scratching your head and watching games in a new way.
Don't miss out!" -- Phil Martelli
The numbers/trends/stats he provides on individual players and teams will have you scratching your head and watching games in a new way.
Don't miss out!" -- Phil Martelli
"What’s the best ‘Dehel’ in college basketball analytics? It’s Frank Dehel's new website - DribbleHandoff.com.
I use it for game preparation, bracketology and studio analysis. You should, too." -- Joe Lunardi