The greatest upset in NCAA Tournament history hasn’t received enough attention. At least not how it happened.
The lazy conclusion is that De’Andre Hunter’s injury was too much for Virginia to overcome. Yes, Hunter would have made a big impact. But even accounting for his absence, UMBC was still a 20+ point underdog. They won the game with incredible strategic decisions. After the first half, the game was tied 21-21. Allowing only 53.4 points per game all season, this game was in Virginia’s wheelhouse. Knowing they would need more to win the game, UMBC Head Coach Ryan Odom and staff made a few key adjustments at halftime. From the start of the second half to the 8:30 mark, UMBC outscored Virginia 29-13 to take a 16-point lead. What changed? UMBC increased their pace offensively and pushed the ball in transition. After 0 transition possessions in the first half, they had 5 transition possessions during their 29-13 point run. They scored 9 points on these 5 possessions (1.8 PPP). Their average possession was 4.2 seconds faster during the run compared to the first half. According to Synergy, Virginia was the 2nd most efficient defense in the half court but 75th in transition defense efficiency. Opponents could push the ball in transition, attacking before Virginia’s pack line defense was set. Virginia’s transition defense gave up .2 more points per possession than their half-court defense – Odom took advantage of this edge. In the second half, UMBC also affected Virginia’s pace. They pressed. It wasn’t against their nature to press - they were 46th in press usage last year. After pressing on just 4 possessions in the first half, UMBC pressed on 10 of the 18 possessions during their run. They allowed only 5 points (.5 PPP) on those possessions. Pressing was key in stifling Virginia’s slow-paced offense. According to KenPom, Virginia had the slowest offensive pace in 2018. Their mover-blocker offense is efficient, but it takes time to get a good look. It's a role-based motion offense predicated on reading the defense. There are 3 “movers”, who are responsible for most of the scoring and ball handling. The 2 “blockers” set screens for the “movers” to get them free for open shots. The offense works so well because most college teams don’t have 3 players who can each make multiple correct reads each possession. UMBC reduced the number of correct reads they needed by forcing Virginia to burn more of the clock getting the ball up the floor against their press. Virginia’s efficiency against the press was .35 PPP worse than when UMBC didn’t press. Beyond changing the pace on both ends of the floor, Odom decided to attack Kyle Guy’s defense by incorporating him in ball screens, especially when he was guarding Jairus Lyles. According to Synergy, among power 6 players, Guy ranked as the 28th worst player at defending the ball handler on ball screens. The chart below shows percentage of the time that each defender guarded Lyles in the first half. Most of the time he was guarded by Nigel Johnson or Devon Hall and they defended him well in ball screen situations. He didn’t score a point in the first half off of a ball screen. In above clip watch as Hall switches onto Lyles and then plays terrific on-ball defense. During their second half run, Lyles saw an even mix of all four defenders. Any time he was defended by Guy, UMBC set a ball screen for him. Two plays later, they used a double stack ball screen with Guy defending and again Lyles beat him to the rim. Even when Guy was not guarding Lyles, UMBC involved him in the ball screen. In the clip below, Guy switches onto him late and Lyles gets by him for a layup. With three strategic moves that changed the game, Odom and his team made NCAA tournament history. Come March, everyone will think a little harder before automatically advancing the #1 seeds to the next round in their bracket.
3 Comments
Coles
10/26/2018 02:49:45 pm
Great analysis, and I appreciate the attempt to put some more X's and O's to the true WTF nature of this game. From a UVA fan, my counterpoint is that, for keys one and two (press and transition), that is exactly what EVERY team tries to do against UVA. This was not some unique, genius game plan.
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1/13/2020 04:03:42 am
This kid is really talented, that is for sure. I have never seen a player this young with this much handles. I want to go and play against him, but I am not that young anymore. I am more of a coach now, but still, my competitive nature is getting the best of me. If you ever come near Miami, please do drop me a call. I want to go and play ball with you, I want to see what you got up close.
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8/19/2021 06:46:18 am
Spot on with this write-up, I truly think this website needs much more consideration. I’ll probably be again to read much more, thanks for that info.
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