Now that we have a legitimate sample size to evaluate teams, I’m kicking off the start of the analytics-based Power Rankings. This column will be posted bi-weekly on DribbleHandoff.
Here we go… 1. Villanova Wildcats As I wrote a few weeks ago, Jay Wright has found the formula. He’s 19-1 this year with two potential National Player of the Year Candidates in Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges. Jalen Brunson has been phenomenal – probably the best offensive guard he’s ever coached. He’s improved across the board, but most significantly scoring in ball screen situations. Brunson’s scoring efficiency in ball screen situations is 1.28 PPP (points per possession) – the highest efficiency for players with a minimum of 50 possessions, per Synergy. This is a drastic improvement from his 1.00 PPP last season in these situations. Brunson has always been a super efficient passer coming off the ball screen – both hitting the roll man and finding his teammates along the perimeter. This season 72% of his assists coming off of a ball screen have resulted in a 3, up slightly from the 69% he posted last year. There’s really no easy way to guard him coming off a ball screen because he can score and pass at an elite level. We’ll see if Marquette can provide a blueprint on Sunday… Upcoming Games: Sun 1/28 @ Marquette, Thurs 2/1 vs. Creighton 2. Purdue Boilermakers It’s rare when a team can lose a top 10 player in the country and maintain their performance the following season. Purdue lost a double-double machine in Caleb “Biggie” Swanigan and are now even better than last year. The boilermakers can play 4 legitimate shooters alongside 7’2” big man Isaac Haas at the 5. They have 5 guards currently shooting over 40% from 3 in Vincent Edwards (46%), Carsen Edwards (41%), Dakota Mathias (46%), PJ Thompson (51%), and Ryan Cline (41%). This has led to an incredible 43.7% from 3 – the highest 3P% in the country. Their personnel groupings provide them with great defensive speed to defend the perimeter, holding opponents to just 31.8% from deep. You can’t beat the Boilermakers trading 3s for 2s. Only a few teams have the defensive capabilities to stop their barrage from 3 – one is right ahead of them in the Power Rankings and another one is next up… Upcoming Games: Thurs 1/25 vs. Michigan, Sun 1/28 @ Indiana 3. Virginia Cavaliers Tony Bennett always gets credited for being a great defensive coach, but this is the best defensive team in the last 15+ years. How does this not get more attention? It’s much better than the 2015 Kentucky defense with Towns that was constantly praised. In fact, this Virginia is far and away the best defense over this time. It’s not close. A really good defensive efficiency can provide some directional insight. This list shows the top 10 best defenses since 2002 – 4 of the 9 made it to the Final 4 and 2 of those teams won the Championship. Is this Tony Bennett’s year? Saturday will be a great test when they take on Duke’s high-powered offense. Edge: Virginia Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 @ Duke, Wed 1/31 vs. Louisville 4. Duke Blue Devils Duke was a favorite to win the Championship coming into the season (and will be next year as well after securing the top 3 players in next year’s recruiting class). They’ve stumbled at times, but it appears Coach K’s group is finally clicking. Their highly touted recruiting class this year has led to a dynamic offense – 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. As well as their starting lineup has performed, Coach K has played this lineup together for over 40% of their possessions. Their depth remains a concern. According to KenPom, the Blue Devils bench accounts for just 24.3% of their total minutes - 23rd lowest rate in D1. The bigger concern is their shooting numbers outside of Cameron Indoor Stadium. As of now, it looks like the Blue Devils could be susceptible a few losses on the road due to their narrow margins. In their 2 losses this season, they have a -26% 3P% margin.
Cameron Shooting Effect:
Cameron Stadium: 2P% Margin: 20% -- 3P% Margin: 7% Not Cameron Stad: 2P% Margin: 7% -- 3P% Margin: -2% Duke has it all – the talent, the coach, and the lineup. They just need to play better on the road before I’m convinced they are in the tier with the first 3 teams. Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 vs. Virginia, Mon 1/29 vs. Notre Dame 5. Michigan State Spartans The Spartans were another favorite to win the Championship this year with Miles Bridges returning to join fellow sophomores Cassius Winston and Nick Ward in addition to top recruit Jaren Jackson. The frontcourt pairing of Bridges, Ward, and Jackson has created one of the best interior defenses in the last 15-20 years. The Spartan’s have held opponents to just 36.3% on 2-point shots – the best mark in KenPom’s database dating back to 2002. However, they have started to slip recently in conference play. Big Ten opponents are shooting 45.4% from 2 against Sparty after they allowed just 32.7% to non-conference opponents. Their upcoming schedule is even tougher inside than the teams they have already played (adjusted for playing the Spartans). Which defense will show up? The historic 32.7% we saw in non-conference play or the average one we’ve seen so far against Big Ten opponents. My projections have them maintaining this level and finishing around 36.5% for the season, which would put them in the record books. Upcoming Games: Fri 1/26 vs. Wisconsin, Sun 1/28 @ Maryland 6. Cincinnati Bearcats This is the best team Mick Cronin has had in his coaching career - the Bearcats defense is for real. They have the 2nd best interior defense, a few ticks behind the Spartan’s, with a 39.4% defensive 2P%. Their strength is their press defense. For years everyone has talked about West Virginia aka ‘press Virginia’, but the Bearcats have now taken over the top spot. Despite, being #1 and 2 in press defense PPP, Cincinnati’s defense is about .06 PPP better than West Virginia’s this season. Cronin has always had tough teams, but they’ve never been this talented or this tough defensively. For now, they are the class of the American Conference, but they still have two games left in conference play against Wichita State. The American is going to have a great finish. Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 @ Memphis, Wed 1/31 vs. Houston 7. Xavier Musketeers If there is a team that can knock off Villanova in the Big East tournament, it’s Xavier. The Musketeers are a big team, 10th largest according to KenPom, who bully their opponents inside. This group has more than just size; they have a great shooting touch. They're just 1 of 4 teams to shoot over 56% on 2s, 36% on 3s, and 76% on free throws this season. Chris Mack has done an excellent job creating a program this is both tough and skilled. Junior forward Kaiser Gates fits that mold. Gates is currently ranked 4th in transition efficiency in D1, according to Synergy. He’s shooting 61% from 3 in transition, up 22% from his half court 3P%. As the video below demonstrates, most of his damage has come from the trail spot. Xavier is too good already to give them open looks to a knock-down shooter in transition. Upcoming opponents need to game plan for the pitch back to Gates. Upcoming Games: Tues 1/30 @ St. John's, Sat 2/3 vs. Georgetown 8. Gonzaga Bulldogs The Bulldogs have been in the top 30 in offensive efficiency for 14 of the 17 years Mark Few has been at the helm. This year is no different as they are currently 7th in offensive efficiency on KenPom. It’s the other side of the ball where the Bulldogs coaching staff should be concerned as they rank 115th in half court defensive efficiency. However, they may have already found their answer. Few is playing more zone defense than he has in the last four years… and it’s working really well. The Bulldogs have the 2nd best DefRtg among teams that have played zone at least 15% of their possessions. Look for Few and the coaching staff to increase their zone defense usage in future games since it’s been so effective this season. Upcoming Games: Thurs 1/25 @ Portland, Sat 1/27 vs. San Francisco 9. Kansas Jayhawks It’s been a tough week for Jayhawk fans. Billy Preston announced he was leaving Kansas for a Bosnian pro club this weekend and then they dropped a close conference game on Tuesday night. But, it’s not all bad for the perennial Big 12 Champs. The loss came on the road to a good Oklahoma team – road games against top 25 teams are really, really hard. Billy Preston’s departure would have had a greater impact on Kansas’ frontcourt if it weren’t for the improvements of Udoka Azubuike. The 7’0” sophomore has made incredible strides on the offensive end - shooting a D1 leading 77% on 2-point shots among qualifying players. Azubuike clearly worked hard this offseason to upgrade his post-up game. His 1.16 PPP leads the nation in post-up efficiency among players who post-up at least 50% of the time. A drastic improvement compared to his dismal .64 PPP from last season. Bill Self and the coaching staff have done an excellent job finding ways to get him the ball in the post. I’ve noticed there are two plays they typically run to set up an Azubuike post pin. Azubuike Post Pin 1 Azubuike Post Pin 2 Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 vs. Texas A&M, Mon 1/29 @ Kansas St 10. West Virginia Mountaineers Javon Carter has received some praise over the last few weeks, especially after his performance defending Trae Young. He deserves even more credit. The senior guard is arguably the best two-player in basketball. Carter’s effort on both ends has led to an extremely rare season stat line. He’s just the 2nd player in the last 15 seasons to average more than 15+ PPG, 5+ RPG, 5+ APG, and 3+ SPG. He’s by far the heart of the Mountaineers. West Virginia has been more successful when Carter plays more of the facilitator role. In their wins he averages 4.3 less shots per game and 1.8 more assists per game. Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 vs. Kentucky, Wed 1/31 @ Iowa St 11. Oklahoma Sooners Trae Young is the superstar college basketball needed this season. He’s been absolutely incredible for the Sooners this season posting point and assist averages we’ve never seen from one player. Especially not a freshman. However, his greatness has overshadowed the influence of fellow freshman, Brady Manek. The 6’9” freshman has provided the Sooners’ with a pure stretch player to set ball screens for Young. He is just 1 of 3 players this season to grab 5+ rebounds per game and shoot over 63% from 2 and 43% from 3. The Sooners have been at their best when Manek has converted on his attempts from beyond the arc. On the most important offensive possession on Tuesday night, Lon Kruger and the coaching staff drew up a player with a ghost action for Manek and Young. Both Kansas defenders stayed with Young and he made the right read to find Manek open for a catch and shoot 3. It’s worth noting, former Indiana Head Coach Tom Crean predicted the entire play in a Tony Romo-esque manner for ESPN. Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 @ Alabama, Tues 1/30 vs. Baylor 12. North Carolina Tar Heels The reigning National Champions find themselves in the top 12 of this installment of the Power Rankings. They are a strong team on both sides of the all - top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Like their rival, Duke, they’ve had the problems defending shots from beyond the arc. Teams are getting 41.9% of their points from 3 against UNC – the 3rd highest percentage in D1. They’ve also had some problems defending teams in transition. However, the Tar Heels have been able to win despite these weaknesses because of their substantial rebound percentage margin. Their top 5 offensive rebound percentage also explains some of their issues in transition defense. North Carolina has some big-time rebounders in Luke Maye, Sterling Manley, Theo Pinson, Garrison Brooks, and Cameron Johnson. It’s not the most talented team Roy Williams has had at North Carolina, but if they can continue to own the glass they should remain a top 3 seed on Selection Sunday. Upcoming Games: Sat 1/27 vs. NC State, Tues 1/30 @ Clemson 13. Ohio State Buckeyes How about the job Chris Holtmann has done this season at Ohio State? The Buckeyes were outside the top 70 in KenPom last year and find themselves currently at #11 in KenPom and 13 in the Power Rankings. After playing only 9 games last year before suffering a stress fracture in his leg, Keita Bates-Diop has been a beast this season. Diop has combined with Jae’Sean Tate and Kam Williams to force one of the best 2-3-4 combinations in the country. In the Buckeyes wins, they have almost 15 more PPG than they have in losses. Diop, Tate, and Williams combine for 12.1 of the 14.9 PPG. What explains the 12.1 PPG gap between wins and losses? Primarily because of their efficiency in the paint. According to Synergy, they are shooting 65% in the paint in wins compared to just 49% in losses. Ohio State’s won 13 of their last 14 because of the strides Diop, Tate, and Williams have made under Holtmann. It’s quite possible the Buckeyes could steal the Big Ten regular season title after many analysts projected them to finish in the bottom quarter of the conference. Upcoming Games: Thurs 1/25 vs. Penn State, Tues 1/30 vs. Indiana 14. Saint Mary’s Gaels The Gael’s are a tough older team led by senior big man Jock Landale. He’s a National Player of the Year candidate and is averaging a double-double with 22.4 PPG and 10.2 RPG. The only other player with 20+ PPG and 10+ RPG is projected top 3 NBA draft pick Marvin Bagley. The Gael’s are the 20th most experienced team in college basketball and have lineups they get to frequently consisting of 4 seniors. This group has helped them to a top 5 offensive TO% in addition to a top 5 offensive eFG%. Winners of 14 straight, it’s safe to say not many teams want to play this senior-laden squad. Upcoming Games: Thurs 1/25 vs. BYU, Sat 1/27 vs. Portland *Numbers are current through Wednesday 1/24/2018
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A few years ago, the NBA had an analytics movement. Similar to the one that occurred in baseball years prior, some of the long-held strategies were challenged. Teams began to prioritize efficiency over counting stats. This resulted in personnel changes; front offices began to favor stretch players and smaller lineups. Coaching staffs made strategic adjustments to improve ball movement, spacing, and pace at the expense of hero-ball.
Front offices tracked everything – shots, touches, lineups, player’s on/off court impact, expected shot value, etc. One of the earliest findings was that the corner 3 has the highest expected shot value. Data from the 2016-17 NBA season shows that corner 3s had a 3P% of 39.4%, while center and wing 3s were shot at 34.4% and 34.9% clips, respectively. Expected shot value is calculated using the location’s shooting % and point value. Therefore, the expected point value of a corner 3 in the NBA is 1.182 (.394 x 3). This marginal lift on corner 3s became a competitive advantage for the teams that studied the play types that generate these shots, why there was a lift, and how they could shoot more of them. So now everyone’s wondering: Does the lift on corner 3s exist in college basketball? Yes. An analysis of 2016-17 NCAA D1 data shows that there is a 2.5% increase in 3P% between corner 3s and non-corner 3s, or above the break 3s. Some have argued that the corner 3’s value was due to the shorter distance to the rim as the NBA 3-point line is 22’ feet in the corner and extends up to 23’9”. However, the college 3-point line is equal at all spots along the line at 20’9” and there is still a substantial lift on corner 3s. Furthermore, using NBA data, a comparison can be made between corner 3s taken from 22’ and 2-point shots also taken from 22’. The 22’ corner 3s are made at a 39.4% clip compared to a 37.7% clip on 22’ shots from inside the arc. It’s not distance. So, then, what is the cause of the lift on corner 3s? An analysis of shot quality, using data from NBAsavant.com, provides the best explanation. The graphic below shows average dribbles, average touch time, and average defender distance for corner 3s and above the break 3s. The corner 3 is less contested, on average, and a higher percentage of these shots are catch and shoot, which are made at higher rates than shots off the dribble. The database doesn’t provide true catch and shoot data, but 91% of the corner 3s were shot without a dribble compared to 72% for above the break 3s. This suggests it’s all about what happens before the shot – the corner 3 is the byproduct of the possession. The teams that take the most corner 3s get the defense to collapse and lose their assignments. The best ways to get a corner look is to penetrate the defense or getting a touch in the paint. Defenses that decide to double team players in the post risk getting beat on a pass to the corner. Is it possible to identify the teams with the highest lift on corner 3s through a specific stat? There isn’t a metric in college basketball that measures these types of possessions. However, the teams with the highest lifts on corner 3s had a player in common – a 6’8”+ big man who shot at least 60% on 2s, an assist rate above 8%, and a usage rate above 20%. These are taller big men who dominate in the paint and frequently draw double teams or extra attention. Once the double comes, they are adequate passers to find the open man in the corner. Teams with these players shot 5.1% better on corner 3s than above the break 3s - 2.6% better than the D1 average lift. Which teams had the highest lift last season? Creighton – 51% on Corner 3s (14.5% lift Corner 3 vs Above the Break) Middle Tennessee – 44.1% on Corner 3s (9.4% lift) Texas A&M – 40% on Corner 3s (9.1% lift) Shooting at a high percentage from the corner is only part of the equation. Teams need to try to create as many opportunities for corner 3s as possible. The NBA has used the data to their advantage – the NBA average for percentage of 3s that are corner 3s continues to increase. The chart below shows the percentage of 3s from the center, wing, and corner for the NBA and NCAA. NBA teams take 7% more 3s from the corner than D1 teams – they studied this shot and know how to take more of them. Corner 3s remain an untapped goldmine in NCAA basketball right now. It’s time college coaches study and follow their NBA counterparts. Some have already caught on. In a press conference last year, Marshall Head Coach Dan D’Antoni, brother of 3-point revolutionist Mike D’Antoni, said, “The best shot in basketball is that corner three.” Who listened? “We don't measure our performance on if shots go in. We measure it on -- I don't mean to be too analytical -- expected shot value.” – Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics Head Coach
1. #TheThing
Marquette’s Andrew Rowsey just posted his 4th 30+ point game this Tuesday against Seton Hall. Rowsey’s teammate, Markus Howard, also has 4 of these games – combining to become the only duo in the country with 4 or more 30+ games. In the 2nd half of the game, Rowsey drew a shooting foul on a 3 with a nice shot fake. But, to Marquette fans, it’s more than just a shot fake. It's called #TheThing and he’s done it 16 times already this season. Why are teams still falling for this fake? According to Synergy, he’s the most efficient ball screen scorer in D1 (min. 100 possessions). Defenses are so worried about Rowsey pulling up from deep that they're easily drawn into the air for Rowsey to lean into them. Here are this season’s clips of #TheThing: 2. Weird Week of Game Ending Fouls On Tuesday, Texas A&M trailed Kentucky by 1 when PJ Washington missed 2 free throws with 3.9 seconds left in the game. Texas A&M guard JJ Caldwell whipped a pass up court to Tyler Davis who was clearly hugged by Wenyen Gabriel – but no foul was called! Davis is shooting 68% from the line. A&M is now 0-4 in SEC play, but they should turn it around now that their guards are healthy. Here’s the no call that ended the game: Hours later, another game came down to the last play. Purdue and Michigan were tied 69-69 when Moe Wagner was called for the foul on an entry pass into Isaac Haas. The 7’2” center, a 78% free throw shooter, hit the front end and Purdue won 70-69. It’s interesting because there’s less contact, but in this case the foul was called. However, the strangest foul came on Wednesday night when TCU intentionally fouled Texas with 6.5 seconds left IN A TIE GAME. Texas was in the double bonus so it wasn’t even to set up a 1 and 1. The craziest part is it almost worked out in their favor! Texas freshman, Jericho Sims, who is shooting just 38% from the line this season, made 1 of 2 to put Texas up 99-98. On TCU’s final play Jaylen Fisher got a wide open look at the rim and it rimmed out. Fisher is shooting 60% at the rim. 3. Giving Robert Williams Some Love Earliest this week, Jeff Eisenberg tweeted “Something I haven't seen discussed enough this season: Robert Williams hasn't gotten any better, has he?” Sam Vecenie added on that he’s slipping in his mock draft and that he’s made very few strides in his game. He's been better. His 2P% is up - lifted by 71% at the rim compared to 65% last year. Defensively, his DRTG is up, blk% is the same, and reb% is way up. When they play only one big man at a time, he has a much higher NetRtg than both Davis and Morelos - an absurd +.50 NetRtg.
These stats all show positive signs that he’s continuing to develop and improve in his second season. I think part of the reason people are questioning him is because he’s been pulled in games by the coaching staff and he’s doing less. It’s true he’s less involved offensively as his usage rate dropped around 5% since last season, but he’s been really efficient in his time on the floor.
Check out the graphic below to see how their bigs have performed in different personnel groupings. He’s improved despite missing games this year with a concussion and virus. Once he plays more games consecutively and his conditioning comes back I think there could even be another level for him. 4. Svi at Home and in Wins has been Deadly from 3 Kansas lost their top two scorers from last season to the NBA in Frank Mason (21 PPG) and Josh Jackson (16 PPG). That’s about 45% of their scoring from last season. A big question for Bill Self and his staff was who would pick up the scoring load. So far Svi Mykhailiuk has stepped up to the challenge, raising his PPG average from 9.8 to 16.9. He’s been dominant from beyond the arc shooting 47% this year, substantially higher than his 40% the past two seasons. Svi has been locked in from deep at home shooting 20% better at Allen Fieldhouse than on the road. He’s not only been better at home, but also in their wins. They’ve needed him to step up this season as a scorer and legitimate threat outside. He’s clearly a different player in their wins than in their losses this year. The Jayhawks are going to need Svi to keep up his scoring production, especially as they wait for the NCAA's clearance process to approve Billy Preston and Silvio De Sousa for play this season. 5. Big Time Scorers (Not Named Trae Young) Trae Young is ridiculous and has scored 30+ points in 5 games. As I mentioned above, Rowsey and Howard each have 4 games. However, two players have had 6 of these performances – Mike Daum and Kendrick Nunn. I wrote about Daum earlier this year – he is a legitimate NBA draft prospect and scoring machine for South Dakota State. The surprise player on the list is Nunn. It shouldn’t really be a surprise - he was ranked #63 in ESPN’s recruiting rankings in 2013 and was a talented scorer in high school playing alongside Jabari Parker. He played his first 3 years at Illinois and averaged 15.5 PPG his junior year. On May 24, 2016, he was dismissed from the team after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor battery charge and transferred to Oakland for his senior year. This season, he's averaging 25.7 PPG and he’s more than doubled his assists from 1.7 to 4.1 APG. It’s great to see Nunn succeeding at Oakland – scoring at the level most thought was possible. On December 18th, Texas A&M was ranked #8 in the AP poll with a 9-1 record. Since then, they lost 3 of their last 5 games and fell out of the top 25 in this week’s poll. Despite their recent struggles, don’t dismiss the Aggies. They are a top 10 in the country at full health. Head Coach Billy Kennedy had to shuffle his rotation almost every game because of injuries, illnesses, and suspensions. But it looks like he may finally have most of his rotation back for Tuesday night’s game at Kentucky. Kennedy’s starting lineup was projected to be Duane Wilson, Admon Gilder, DJ Hogg, Robert Williams, and Tyler Davis. However, that lineup has only played 11% of the non-garbage time possessions this season. Over this 5 game stretch where they struggled to a 2-3 record, Williams, Wilson, and Hogg missed at least 2 games, and Gilder missed all 5. Kennedy needs all of these players back on the court, but none more than Gilder. Without him, they’ve struggled from beyond the arc on both ends of the floor. This shouldn’t be a long-term problem for the Aggies with Gilder on his way back. In an analysis of their season, Gilder has the highest NetRtg (PPP margin) on the team highlighted by team bests in both offensive 3P% and defensive 3P% when on the court. Gilder’s return should help reinstate this team as a top 10 in the country. He leads the team in both offensive and defensive efficiency in non-garbage time. This is largely because he’s the team's top shooter, converting on 44% of his 3s, as well as their best guard defender. According to Synergy, Gilder ranks 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency for players with at least 70 possessions as the primary defender. Opponents are shooting just 28.5% from 3 and 5% in the paint when Gilder is sticking them. Gilder is not the only one who will help flip the 3pt line back in the Aggies favor. Junior wing, DJ Hogg, is shooting 48% from deep and has used his length to defend at a high level. Texas A&M’s stats are staggering with both players on the court. The graphic below shows how their teammates have performed with both Gilder and Hogg on the court with them compared to having just one or neither player on the court. The NetRtgs of the rotation players with both Gilder and Hogg on the court show the potential of this team at full strength. Robert Williams (+.31) and Tonny Trocha-Morelos (+.41) are two bigs who really excel playing with Gilder and Hogg. These four players have played together for only 6% of the team’s total possessions this season, but the results are ridiculously good. Their defensive PPP is .64 leading to a NetRtg of +.55. If Kennedy can get to a lineup featuring these four players, the Aggies will be back in the top 10 of the AP poll very soon.
Trae Young is the best offensive player in college basketball in the last 25+ years.
Let that sink in. In that time the game has seen the likes of Steph Curry, Buddy Hield, Jimmer Fredette, Adam Morrison, Glenn Robinson, and Doug McDermott – his current stats are better than all of theirs. His combination of scoring and passing has never been seen before at the college level. Through 12 games, his 29.6 points per game ranks 4th over the last 25 years, just .7 PPG from the top spot. Even better, his 10.7 assists per game is the highest mark in college basketball over that time. That point production is unreal. His xPP/G (expected points produced per game) of 54.7 points is the most by any player in the last 25 years - 8.3 points higher than the second highest player and 13 points more than Steph Curry in his best season at Davidson. NBA executives are already salivating at the prospect of drafting Young. He’s the model guard in today’s game. What makes him so special? He is a ridiculously efficient player Since the analytics movement in the NBA, teams are striving to take more 3s and shots at the rim at the expense of mid-range jumpers (see the Houston Rockets). Trae Young has already exhibited elite shot selection at just 19 years old. Just 4.1% of Young’s shots are mid-range attempts. The average D1 player shoots three times that amount at 12.8%. Young is Rocket-esque taking 94% of his shots from 3 or in the restricted area. He has converted on these high percentage looks at an above average rate shooting 58% in the restricted area and 41% from 3, up 4% and 5% from the D1 average, respectively. As good as his own shot selection is, he’s equally as good at creating efficient opportunities for his teammates. He does an excellent job setting them up with passes leading to the rim. Over 61% of his assists have resulted in baskets in the restricted area. The average D1 player attempts just 48% of his shots in this same area. It should come as no surprise that all of this has translated to absurd on/off court ratings. Young has the highest offensive plus minus since Sports-Reference started estimating the metric in 2010. Freakishly good in transition According to Synergy, the Sooners are in transition 25.7% of the time – the 7th highest rate in the nation. Of the top 75 teams in transition rate, Oklahoma has the most efficient transition offense. This is a massive improvement from their rank as 198th in transition efficiency last season. That’s the impact of Trae Young running the show in transition. He leads the nation with 4.8 transition assists per game, partly because he makes a quick pass up the court. Most NCAA players in transition prefer to dribble the ball up and then make the pass after they cross half court. Not Trae Young. He takes 1-2 dribbles and throws a lead pass up to a streaking teammate. Oklahoma Assistant Coach Carlin Hartman said, “For a guy that averages as many points as he does, he likes to throw the ball ahead to teammates for catch and shoot, catch and drive, and catch and finish opportunities. He is exceptional going vertical. He has tremendous inline speed and you always have to account for him pulling up to shoot.” Transition opportunities are about speed and odd man advantages – earlier passes, like the ones Trae Young makes, increase the likelihood of converting on these possessions. Range from the half court logo Young has legitimate NBA 3-point range. That’s not how far he can shoot, that’s where he makes most of his 3s. Roughly 68% of his made 3s are estimated to be behind the NBA 3-point line. He had the shooter reputation in AAU basketball even before playing at Oklahoma. Hartman added, “He came in with great shooting ability and range. Early on we were intent on having him shoot closer to the line. As time has gone on, he’s proven he can make them, so now we are more comfortable with those shots.” Ball Screen Beast The NBA continues to move toward more ball screen possessions and less isolation or “hero ball”. Players that can read and attack the ball screen at the collegiate level become extremely valuable and are highly coveted by NBA GMs. Trae Young is 2nd in the nation in points per game using a ball screen, just behind Junior Robinson from Mount St. Mary’s. The ball screen has really helped him create space for his shot as 42% of his made 3s this season have come off of a ball screen. Hartman raved, “His pace and feel you can’t really teach. It’s an innate ability. He is just tremendous off of ball screens. He sees how both defenders react to the screen and knows where everyone is on the floor. He can read all of that better than anyone I’ve seen, maybe ever.” |
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