On Thursday, 16 seed Penn will face 1 seed Kansas and attempt to become the first 16 seed to ever beat a 1 seed. If it were ever going to happen – today is the day – this is the matchup. First, it’s worth noting that these teams are both slightly mis-seeded. Analytically, Kansas resembles more of a 2-3 seeded team, while Penn that of a 14/15 seed. We’ve seen 15s beat 2s and 14 beat 3s. If this game was a 14 vs. 3, would people be more likely to pick Penn? It shouldn’t change your mind. The matchup is still the same - the teams are still the same. Kansas plays 4 guards with 7-footer, Udoka Azubuike, manning the inside. They’ve been very successful so far this season, especially from beyond the arc - 10th in the nation in 3P%. It’s not surprising as playing 4 guards and a dominant post player often leads to an elite 3P%. However, Penn is the 2nd best team in the nation at defending the 3. This is primarily driven by their ability to force and contest tough shots. According to a ShotQ, they have the best shot quality defense on jump shots. Using season long statistics and trends, Penn could not have asked for a better 1 seed matchup. Two questions still remain. 1. “Can Penn defend 7’0” center Azubuike?” 2. “Penn could stifle Kansas defensively, but can they score on Kansas?” Azubuike hurt his leg and missed the entire Big 12 Conference Tournament. He’s a game time decision for their matchup and it doesn’t seem promising. If he can’t go, both of these questions are answered. Kansas doesn’t really use their bench. Of 351 D1 teams, their starting lineup plays the 6th highest percentage of available minutes in non-garbage time situations. That starting lineup consists of Devonte’ Graham, Malik Newman, Legearld Vick, Svi Mykhailiuk, and, usually, Azubuike. With the 7-footer out, the Jayhawks have been using Mitch Lightfoot and freshman Silvio De Sousa. I analyzed their last 7 games, which includes the 3 conference tournament games they played without Azubuike. The graphic below shows how their starting lineup performed when Azubuike was on the court with them compared to the starters with Lightfoot or De Sousa. The results are incredible. Yes, their 2P% is higher offensively without Azubuike, but Penn may be able to mitigate this effect in their matchup due to the fact that they have the lowest percentage of shots inside the paint. The starters are significantly worse defensively without Azubuike – dropping them from .95 Def PPP to 1.16 Def PPP. Their 3P%, both offensively and defensively, also deteriorated without Azubuike on the floor. Penn could have its way from deep if Azubuike can’t play. The Jayhawks’ starting lineup allowed their opponents to shoot 40% when Azubuike was replaced by Lightfoot or De Sousa – 16% worse than with Azubuike. Good news for Penn fans, the Quakers have the ideal lineup to exploit the Jayhawks’ 3-point woes if Azubuike is out. The graphic below shows Penn’s ‘small ball lineup’, which was their most efficient lineup in 14 games of conference play this season. This lineup shot over 52% from 3, which was almost 20% higher than all of Penn's other lineups. Their +.33 NetRtg is Penn’s most efficient lineup and by a wide margin. They only played this lineup around 6% of the time in conference play, but it’s worth noting that in their final regular season game they played this lineup almost 25% of the game – the most of any Penn lineup. Shots have to drop for the Quakers and Kansas needs to miss some tough deep jumpers, but it’s possible. If Azubuike is ruled out, watch for this lineup vs. the Jayhawks’ starters. It will probably decide the game.
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The NCAA tournament is finally here and by now you’re starting to rethink your bracket. You may want to choose a different 12 seed to beat a 5 or you'd like to switch one of your elite 8 matchups.
You want to switch your pick, but you just don’t have any facts to back up the late change! Look no further… DribbleHandoff has officially released Tournament Central – the home of advanced tournament analytics featuring Team Shot Charts, ShotQ (shot quality), Player Splits, and much more, Plus, 10 stats that you need to perfect your bracket using insights from Tournament Central. 1. Virginia attempts the highest percentage of non-paint 2s of any team in the Tournament. No team seeded 2-10 in the South bracket is in the top 10 in defensive shooting percentage on non-paint shots. Only Cincinnati (12th) is in the top 20. 2. Texas Tech guard, Keenan Evans, leads all NCAA tournament players in PPG difference in wins vs losses – he’s averaging 19.9 PPG in wins compared to just 10.4 PPG in losses. Texas Tech is 18-2 when Evans scores 15+ or more points, while just 6-6 when he fails to reach this mark. 3. Since Feb 1, only two players on NCAA tournament teams averaged 20+ PPG with an eFG% over 65% - Villanova’s Mikal Bridges and College of Charleston’s Grant Riller. 4. Kansas ranks 240th in offensive JumpShotQ and 216th in defensive JumpShotQ – a metric that measures shot quality on jump shots. Their first round opponent, Penn, ranks 3rd and 4th, respectively. 5. Despite the early season success from 3, Oklahoma freshman, Trae Young, has the lowest 3P% among NCAA Tournament players who have attempted at least 5 3PA/G since Feb 1 – Young shot 25.5% from beyond the arc. 6. Villanova’s defense has the 8th worst shooting percentage defending the corner 3 and 15th worst defending the paint. Purdue, the 2 seed in the East, has the 2nd highest shooting percentage from the corner 3 and the 8th highest shooting percentage in the paint. 7. Only two teams rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive ShotQ (shot quality) – Michigan State and Gonzaga. 8 and 9. Dominant Bigs – 1 Post Player & 2 Stretch Players – Since Feb 1, only 3 players have averaged 20+ PPG and 9+ RPG. Arizona Center, DeAndre Ayton, averaged 21.5 PPG, 13.2 RPG, and 2.2 BPG. Mike Daum of South Dakota State, who I wrote about earlier in the season, and Peyton Aldridge are the only other players over 20 and 9. Both of them are over 24 PPG in this span, while shooting 44+% from 3. 10. #1 Seed in the West, Xavier, has the 4th worst defensive shooting percentage in the paint. #3 Michigan, #4 Gonzaga, and #5 Ohio State all boast top 12 shooting percentages inside the lane. I pointed out a few weeks ago, opponents are scoring with ease inside (69% on 2s) when Kanter is on the court for Xavier. |
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