The 3-point revolution has changed basketball to a game of space. Teams are looking for more ways to create separation for their best shooters. One of those ways is through ball screens, which many teams use to cause a miscommunication on defense or, at a minimum, increase the decision load. Over the last 6 seasons, the percentage of possessions using a ball screen is up 24% in college basketball and 20% in the NBA. And the trend is accelerating. The usage rate is up about 7% year over year in college basketball in each of the last two seasons. So why are teams continuing to run more of their offense with ball screens? There are so many options available to an offense using a ball screen, that if you try to guard it all, you end up not defending anything well. You will inevitably be forced to give up something. All types of ball screen defense are designed to take away some of these options. The ball screen defense that you choose is dependent on which type of shot you want to concede. The question is, analytically, which type of shot should teams be willing to give up? There are at least 8 options for the offense. The ball handler can either take a dribble jumper, a floater/runner, or take it all the way to the rim. The ball handler can also pass to the screener who can roll to the rim, pop for a jumper, or slip the screen. The ball handler can also pass to a player for jumper or hit a cutter depending on how defenses choose to defend the action. To determine both the value and the frequency of these 8 options, DribbleHandoff analyzed every possession that ended on a ball screen last season. The points per shot metric in the table below includes any points gained at the foul line. The ball handler garners so much attention because they possess the ball, but the ball handler is the least efficient player involved in the ball screen, because the dribble jumper and runner hold the least points per shot. Most of the shots from these two options come from the same area – midrange and non-restricted area paint shots. As I wrote in the last article, midrange attempts are terribly inefficient shots. On all offensive actions, midrange shots are worth about .71 points per shot. The dribble jumper in this analysis includes jumpers from both 2 and 3, which is boosting the value of this shot in the analysis. Therefore, teams should defend the ball screen by forcing the ball handler to take a dribble jumper from midrange or a runner. The offense has already proven they will take it too. Runners and dribble jumpers by the ball handler account for 31% of the possessions using the ball screen. What’s the best way to force the ball handler to take a midrange shot off the ball screen? There are a few different strategies that can be effective, but the best is probably an over with a soft hedge. However, personnel, both offensively and defensively, should dictate how the defense guards the ball screen. Offenses will remain committed to creating space using the ball screen. It’s going to be more than just a trend. But that doesn’t mean the defense is helpless. In the battle for space, defenses need to counter by offering some space - the inefficient midrange area for the ball handler.
1 Comment
2/12/2019 12:08:15 am
In the game of basketball, having great teamwork is important. Well, you could say that for most of its parts. Like for example, to win in basketball you need to score, while you also need to defend. Ball screens are a way to utilize both teamwork and offense. Most of the time, primary scorers and ball handlers have difficulty in avoiding their defenders, this is where ball screens become important. Maximizing ball screen is a technique that the Washington Wizards utilize.
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