The model for projecting the standings and players uses on-court metrics like BPM, ORTG, DRTG, and more to create a value-added metric for all returning players.
Projected 2018-19 Big 12 Standings 1. Kansas 2. Texas 3. Texas Tech 4. West Virginia 5. Baylor 6. Iowa State 7. Kansas State 8. TCU 9. Oklahoma 10. Oklahoma State Best 5 Players: Udoka Azubuike - The highest 2P% in D1 last season. He will be even better this year with Dedric Lawson feeding him the ball in a high-low. Highest returning value-added player in Big 12. Dedric Lawson - He could be the first player in 25+ years to average 10+ PPG, 10+ RPG, and 5+ APG. His sophomore year at Memphis he posted 19.2, 9.9, and 3.3. Dean Wade - Shot over 50% from 2, 40% from 3, and 75% from the line… at 6'10”! Kansas State’s offense was +.128 PPP better with him in the game. Jarrett Culver – Best 3&D player in the conference. The 6'5" guard blocks shots, gets steals, and hit 38% from 3 last year. Sagaba Konate - Had 6 games with 6+ blocks - tied for 2nd most in D1. He’s one of the better defenders in the conference. He will be a force at the rim more consistently this season. Best Freshman: Quentin Grimes 5 Breakout Returning Players: Mark Vital Lindell Wigginton Brady Manek Matt Coleman Brandone Francis 5 Impact Transfers: Marial Shayok Dedric Lawson Keelon Lawson Matt Mooney Mario Kegler Best Offensive Player Dean Wade - Not only a knockdown shooter, but he’s also an incredibly gifted passer for his size - highest AST:TO ratio in D1 for player 6'10" or taller last season. Best Defensive Player Jarrett Culver - Highest returning player in defensive value-added. Excellent ball screen defense. Arguably the best 3&D player in the country. Big East POY: Udoka Azubuike – Last season, Azubuike had the highest impact on teammate NetRtg among the Jayhawks’ rotation players. He’s a force at both ends and is virtually unguardable now in the post 1 on 1. Bill Self and the coaching staff have done an excellent job finding ways to get him the ball in the post. There are two plays they typically run to set up an Azubuike post pin. Azubuike Post-Pin #1 Azubuike Post-Pin #2 What to Watch: The Jayhawks’ Spacing & High-Low Action Kansas will incorporate more of the high-low action that Bill Self loves to run with the addition of Dedric Lawson. It’s more than just the high-low. Self thrives with a playmaking and skilled forward, like Perry Ellis, paired with a rim ruining bruiser. That’s exactly what he’ll have this year with Lawson and Azubuike. Early in the season, watch the Jayhawks’ spacing and how defenses choose to defend their bigs. In 2014-15, their high-low was incredibly difficult to defend because Perry Ellis shot 53% on non-paint 2s. Defenses were forced to cover Ellis’ mid-range jumper, which allowed their 5-man to work 1 on 1 in the paint. As a sophomore at Memphis, Dedric Lawson only made 31% of his non-paint 2s. If Lawson isn’t efficient in the mid-range game this season, then defenses will elect to give him that shot and will bring help in the post against Azubuike.
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On December 18th, Texas A&M was ranked #8 in the AP poll with a 9-1 record. Since then, they lost 3 of their last 5 games and fell out of the top 25 in this week’s poll. Despite their recent struggles, don’t dismiss the Aggies. They are a top 10 in the country at full health. Head Coach Billy Kennedy had to shuffle his rotation almost every game because of injuries, illnesses, and suspensions. But it looks like he may finally have most of his rotation back for Tuesday night’s game at Kentucky. Kennedy’s starting lineup was projected to be Duane Wilson, Admon Gilder, DJ Hogg, Robert Williams, and Tyler Davis. However, that lineup has only played 11% of the non-garbage time possessions this season. Over this 5 game stretch where they struggled to a 2-3 record, Williams, Wilson, and Hogg missed at least 2 games, and Gilder missed all 5. Kennedy needs all of these players back on the court, but none more than Gilder. Without him, they’ve struggled from beyond the arc on both ends of the floor. This shouldn’t be a long-term problem for the Aggies with Gilder on his way back. In an analysis of their season, Gilder has the highest NetRtg (PPP margin) on the team highlighted by team bests in both offensive 3P% and defensive 3P% when on the court. Gilder’s return should help reinstate this team as a top 10 in the country. He leads the team in both offensive and defensive efficiency in non-garbage time. This is largely because he’s the team's top shooter, converting on 44% of his 3s, as well as their best guard defender. According to Synergy, Gilder ranks 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency for players with at least 70 possessions as the primary defender. Opponents are shooting just 28.5% from 3 and 5% in the paint when Gilder is sticking them. Gilder is not the only one who will help flip the 3pt line back in the Aggies favor. Junior wing, DJ Hogg, is shooting 48% from deep and has used his length to defend at a high level. Texas A&M’s stats are staggering with both players on the court. The graphic below shows how their teammates have performed with both Gilder and Hogg on the court with them compared to having just one or neither player on the court. The NetRtgs of the rotation players with both Gilder and Hogg on the court show the potential of this team at full strength. Robert Williams (+.31) and Tonny Trocha-Morelos (+.41) are two bigs who really excel playing with Gilder and Hogg. These four players have played together for only 6% of the team’s total possessions this season, but the results are ridiculously good. Their defensive PPP is .64 leading to a NetRtg of +.55. If Kennedy can get to a lineup featuring these four players, the Aggies will be back in the top 10 of the AP poll very soon.
Trae Young is the best offensive player in college basketball in the last 25+ years.
Let that sink in. In that time the game has seen the likes of Steph Curry, Buddy Hield, Jimmer Fredette, Adam Morrison, Glenn Robinson, and Doug McDermott – his current stats are better than all of theirs. His combination of scoring and passing has never been seen before at the college level. Through 12 games, his 29.6 points per game ranks 4th over the last 25 years, just .7 PPG from the top spot. Even better, his 10.7 assists per game is the highest mark in college basketball over that time. That point production is unreal. His xPP/G (expected points produced per game) of 54.7 points is the most by any player in the last 25 years - 8.3 points higher than the second highest player and 13 points more than Steph Curry in his best season at Davidson. NBA executives are already salivating at the prospect of drafting Young. He’s the model guard in today’s game. What makes him so special? He is a ridiculously efficient player Since the analytics movement in the NBA, teams are striving to take more 3s and shots at the rim at the expense of mid-range jumpers (see the Houston Rockets). Trae Young has already exhibited elite shot selection at just 19 years old. Just 4.1% of Young’s shots are mid-range attempts. The average D1 player shoots three times that amount at 12.8%. Young is Rocket-esque taking 94% of his shots from 3 or in the restricted area. He has converted on these high percentage looks at an above average rate shooting 58% in the restricted area and 41% from 3, up 4% and 5% from the D1 average, respectively. As good as his own shot selection is, he’s equally as good at creating efficient opportunities for his teammates. He does an excellent job setting them up with passes leading to the rim. Over 61% of his assists have resulted in baskets in the restricted area. The average D1 player attempts just 48% of his shots in this same area. It should come as no surprise that all of this has translated to absurd on/off court ratings. Young has the highest offensive plus minus since Sports-Reference started estimating the metric in 2010. Freakishly good in transition According to Synergy, the Sooners are in transition 25.7% of the time – the 7th highest rate in the nation. Of the top 75 teams in transition rate, Oklahoma has the most efficient transition offense. This is a massive improvement from their rank as 198th in transition efficiency last season. That’s the impact of Trae Young running the show in transition. He leads the nation with 4.8 transition assists per game, partly because he makes a quick pass up the court. Most NCAA players in transition prefer to dribble the ball up and then make the pass after they cross half court. Not Trae Young. He takes 1-2 dribbles and throws a lead pass up to a streaking teammate. Oklahoma Assistant Coach Carlin Hartman said, “For a guy that averages as many points as he does, he likes to throw the ball ahead to teammates for catch and shoot, catch and drive, and catch and finish opportunities. He is exceptional going vertical. He has tremendous inline speed and you always have to account for him pulling up to shoot.” Transition opportunities are about speed and odd man advantages – earlier passes, like the ones Trae Young makes, increase the likelihood of converting on these possessions. Range from the half court logo Young has legitimate NBA 3-point range. That’s not how far he can shoot, that’s where he makes most of his 3s. Roughly 68% of his made 3s are estimated to be behind the NBA 3-point line. He had the shooter reputation in AAU basketball even before playing at Oklahoma. Hartman added, “He came in with great shooting ability and range. Early on we were intent on having him shoot closer to the line. As time has gone on, he’s proven he can make them, so now we are more comfortable with those shots.” Ball Screen Beast The NBA continues to move toward more ball screen possessions and less isolation or “hero ball”. Players that can read and attack the ball screen at the collegiate level become extremely valuable and are highly coveted by NBA GMs. Trae Young is 2nd in the nation in points per game using a ball screen, just behind Junior Robinson from Mount St. Mary’s. The ball screen has really helped him create space for his shot as 42% of his made 3s this season have come off of a ball screen. Hartman raved, “His pace and feel you can’t really teach. It’s an innate ability. He is just tremendous off of ball screens. He sees how both defenders react to the screen and knows where everyone is on the floor. He can read all of that better than anyone I’ve seen, maybe ever.” |
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