Projected 2018-19 Big East Standings
1. Villanova 2. Butler 3. Marquette 4. Providence 5. Creighton 6. Seton Hall 7. Xavier 8. St. John's 9. DePaul 10. Georgetown *Standings assume Mustapha Heron is ineligible for St. John's. Update will be released if eligible. Best 5 Players: Shamorie Ponds - One of 17 players with at least 6 30+ point games. St. John's was 2-4 in those games. They relied on him too heavily. Increased usage rate came with a big dip in efficiency. Eric Paschall - He shot 1/25 (4%) from 3 in his first 13 games last year. He then went on to shoot 46% from 3 for the rest of the season. Most well rounded game in the Big East. Sam Hauser - In the last 25 years, only 3 players have posted two seasons of 5+ RPG while shooting over 50% from 2, 40% from 3, and 80% from the line. Doug McDermott, Alec Peters, & Hauser. Sean McDermott - Super efficient shooter who will get more looks with Kelan Martin (16 shots per game) graduating. Martin Krampelj – He could be the most underrated player in the Big East. Elite team defender. Leading scorer and rebounder returning for Creighton. Ranked 15th in PPP according to Synergy. Best Freshman Jahvon Quinerly – Skilled player with good vision. He will be incredibly tough to defend in ball screen situations and will create open looks for Villanova’s knockdown shooters. 5 Breakout Returning Players: Naji Marshall – Great freshman season. Minutes will sky rocket. Future All-Big East 1st teamer. Jermaine Samuels – Could be the next in the line of Hart/Bridges. Has the body and talent. Justin Simon – One of the better 2-way players in the conference. All-Big East level defender. Ty-Shon Alexander - Long guard who made 34% from 3 as a freshman and 79% at the rim. Tyrique Jones – Gifted big who looks to be in the best shape of his college career. 5 Impact Transfers: Jordan Tucker – Could end up being one of the best scorers in the Big East once he's eligible. Joseph Chartouny – Will help give Marquette a defensive identity. Nice fit with Howard. Joe Cremo – Dynamic guard. Jay Wright may use him in the post in his inverted offense. Jalen Coleman-Lands - A career 40% shooter from 3 and a former top 40 recruit. Taurean Thompson - Talented big with room to grow. Will get plenty of minutes at Seton Hall. Best Offensive Player: Markus Howard – Pure scorer who will facilitate more than last year with Andrew Rowsey gone. One of the nation’s best shooters over the last few seasons. Best Defensive Player: Martin Krampelj - Doesn't show up in the traditional box score stats, but he’s an excellent team defender. Led the conference in DRTG. Big East POY: Eric Paschall – On the best team in the Big East, Paschall will be a leader and stat sheet stuffer. What to Watch: Villanova's Inverted Offense Last year, Jay Wright often posted Jalen Brunson in an inverted offense. They used it to force opposing bigs to switch along the perimeter, target defenders, and let the bigger/stronger Brunson work 1 on 1 in the post. After losing Brunson to the NBA, Villanova snagged a proven post-up guard to run their inverted offense next season in Albany transfer Joe Cremo. Cremo was one of 7 guards with at least 10 shots and 10 passes out of the post last year. The 6'4" guard has great footwork, size, and can see the floor well. Expect Wright to post Cremo with the likes of Quinerly, Booth, Swider, and Paschall along the perimeter. Here is a look at Cremo in an inverted set at Albany last season:
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Xavier is in position to win the regular season title for the first time since the formation of the new Big East. However, this team has even bigger goals for this season. Trevon Bluiett, JP Macura, and Sean O’Mara have made it to three consecutive NCAA tournaments – making it as far as the Elite 8 last season.
This season, they want nothing short of an NCAA Championship. The Musketeers are having their best offensive season under Head Coach Chris Mack – ranking 5th in offensive efficiency per KenPom. However, as the graphic below shows, they have struggled on the defensive end similar to the other offensive powerhouses. Yet, of these teams, Xavier’s defensive issues may be the easiest to fix. Their struggles are personnel related. They recently promoted Kerem Kanter to the starting lineup, but the move has come with awful defensive results. The graphic below shows the on-court metrics for the rotation players over the last 11 games. Opponents shot 69% from 2 with Kanter on the floor during this span, which led to the worst defensive PPP on the team. He is the only rotation player with a negative NetRtg. Over the last 11 games, they’ve made the defensive problem worse. Not only does Kanter start, but he is playing 4.3 more minutes now than he was before this stretch. Kanter’s minute increase has been funded by the two players who can least afford playing time cuts – Kaiser Gates and O’Mara. O’Mara and Gates are much better defensive options, as the numbers suggest, and they need to get both on the floor as much as possible. Gates leads the team with a +.15 NetRtg and his impact on his teammates' performance is incredible. Gates is built for today’s game – a small ball 4, who is shooting 39% from beyond the arc this season. Defensively, he does a really good job switching on ball screens and his length and athleticism helps him contest shots. Chris Mack should rebuild his lineup starting with the 3 highest players in NetRtg over the last 11 games – Gates, O’Mara, and Quentin Goodin. This trio only played together for 14% of the possessions, but the results were remarkable, especially on defense. Add in Bluiett, a likely All-American, to play the 2-guard spot. The final spot becomes an option for Chris Mack between Macura and Naji Marshall. This lineup, with the flexibility of Macura/Marshall, remains a strong lineup on the defensive end allowing just .94 PPP. Compare the lineups. The decision isn’t even close. To get better overall, Xavier needs to sacrifice slightly on the offensive end to see large gains defensively. With these changes, they will be better equipped to make a tournament run. However, to win an NCAA Championship, teams need to be able to win close games. Xavier does just that. In their first 16 games, they beat their opponents by an average of +14.9 points per game. But, during the last 11 games, they won by only +4.6 points. They're 9-2 in that span. It helps to have a clutch scorer. During the 11-game stretch, Bluiett has been ridiculously good in crunch time (last 10 minutes of games within 10 points + overtime). These numbers include this game saving 4-point play against Georgetown… … and this dagger against Butler the following game: It also helps to have a team full of good free throw shooters. In the final 5 mins of the games that are within 4 points, Xavier is shooting 82% from the FT line. They know how to end games. If they make the changes to get better defensively, this could be the team to beat.
Villanova has dominated for the last four seasons winning 88% of their games – the highest win% of any D1 program. This is a huge jump from their win% in the three prior seasons, when they won just 55% of their games. Now, this season, they are undefeated with a 10-0 record.
Safe to say that Jay Wright’s found the formula. Wright knew that to win he needed to make strategic changes to their offense. Shooting improvements were made from all levels as 2P% and 3P% both saw increases. More importantly, the shot distribution changed. They went from shooting just 1.2% more 3s per FGA than the D1 average to 8.7% more than the average from 2014-17. They are still reaping the rewards from this transformation as one of seven remaining undefeated teams and are #1 in the AP and Coaches polls. Much of their success is from just one lineup – their version of the Warriors’ well acclaimed “Death Lineup”. It features Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, and Omari Spellman. In analyzing their game data this season, excluding garbage time, the “Nova Death Lineup” has a net rating (or Points Per Possession margin) of +.56 when they are on the court and all other lineups are +.24. A net rating of +.24 for all other lineups is very good, but a lineup with a +.56 is beyond remarkable. The key to this lineup’s success is the deep ball – they shot it 12% better than all other Villanova lineups and 15% better than their opposing lineups. It’s no surprise that this lineup is shooting lights out from beyond the arc. They are the ideal small ball lineup as they range from 6’2” to 6’8” and all five are shooting over 38% from 3. That said, this lineup and their other lineups are not as successful without the best 2-way player in college basketball – Mikal Bridges. The junior forward is playing at a Naismith Player of the Year level averaging 18.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.1 steals, and 1.3 blocks – all are career highs. Bridges value can also be seen in on/off court data. With him on the court they have a +.35 net rating, highest on the team, compared to a -.08 net rating with him off the court. His impact on his teammates’ performance is clear. The graphic below shows the net rating for each player when they are on the court with Bridges and without him. Five of the seven rotation players have a negative net rating without him and DiVincenzo is barely positive at +.03. This team will head into the NCAA tournament as a #1 seed and a favorite to win it all. Any team that wants to knock off Villanova will need an answer for Mikal Bridges, the “Nova Death Lineup”, and Wright’s transformed offense. *Note: All on court/off court data excludes garbage time data.
Last year only 40 players shot better than 44.5% on at least 100 attempts from beyond the arc -roughly 1% of all D1 players. So, it’s pretty remarkable that three of them were on the same team – Marquette.
It’s not a coincidence. It’s Wojo. Marquette’s Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey, and Sam Hauser became just the third trio in the last 20 years to reach this mark from 3. Largely due to their trio’s elite shooting from deep, Marquette led the nation in 3P% at 42.9%. This is a direct result of head coach Steve Wojciechowski’s strategy as he has made decisions in personnel management and game planning to ensure they will outshoot their opponents from 3. This offensive foundation traces back to his time as assistant coach for Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. In his last five seasons as assistant, they averaged 38.5% from 3 - fifth best over that time. Wojo brought these principles with him to Marquette and he is seeing even more success from deep. Last season they led the nation from 3 and are on pace to be among the nation’s highest again this season. All three shooters returned this season looking to build on last season’s success. Markus Howard alone shot a historic 55% from deep - the fourth highest rate in the last 20 years. Wojo puts Howard in a high percentage of ball screens to create space to get his shot off. He had the second highest efficiency in D1 when scoring off of a ball screen on at least 80 possessions. His teammate, Andrew Rowsey, scores in similar ways and was almost as efficient scoring off of a ball screen finishing as the 13th most efficient player. Combined they shot an absurd 46% from 3 and 54% at the rim when attacking off of a ball screen. Finally add in Sam Hauser, who, at 6’8”, creates mismatches with opposing bigs especially in transition, where he shot 61% from 3. Even though Marquette only gets out in transition at an average rate, they had the nation’s fifth highest efficiency in transition. Eight games into this season the percentages are similar to last year - Howard, Rowsey, and Hauser are all shooting over 39% from deep. But Wojo has them shooting even more 3s than last season. They are taking 51% of their shots as 3s - fifth highest in D1. With this increase in 3PA rate, ball screen usage, and transition efficiency the team is looking more and more like the collegiate version of the Houston Rockets or Golden State Warriors. Wojo is ahead of the curve in college basketball and the results will follow. He is setting this team up to attract the best shooting recruits for many seasons to come. This is now the Land of the Three. |
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