In the last article, I discussed that teams are running more of their offense with ball screens. Ball screen usage is up 24% in college basketball since 2013 and the trend is accelerating.
I argued that there are so many options available to an offense using a ball screen, that if you try to guard them all, you will not defend any option well. You will inevitably be forced to give up something. Using the data on all options involved in the ball screen, my suggestion was to force the midrange shot to the ball handler by going over with a soft hedge. However, defenses have another option to counter the value of the ball screen – switching. Switching ball screens is a viable and still underutilized strategy, and it has become more common in the NBA and NCAA as it neutralizes the immediate value of the ball screen and only involves the two players defending the screen. The downside of switching is that after the ball screen is switched, there is an opportunity for the offense to exploit positional/size mismatches. To facilitate and improve the effectiveness of the switch, teams are now rostering players that can cover multiple positions. Coaches want to switch everything, and having players who can guard a larger range of positions reduces the offense’s mismatch advantage. However, NBA offenses are now aggressively attacking the defense’s tendency to switch ball screens. Despite a coach’s desire to be able to switch everything, most teams do not have the defensive talent to truly switch 1 to 5. Offenses are now using the switch to force a mismatch that they can isolate. The table below shows the percentage of ball screen possessions that are isolations resulting from a ball screen switch for both the NBA and the NCAA. Over the last 5 seasons, these isolations continue to increase in the NBA while they have remained constant in college basketball. College coaches should study the NBA and find ways to incorporate this into their offense against switching defenses. This trend is rapidly accelerating in the NBA playoffs and really became noticeable last season. The table below shows the percentage for both the NBA regular season and playoffs. It’s one thing to acknowledge that this strategy is quickly trending upward, but is it providing an analytical advantage? To answer that, it’s best to compare apples to apples. Here, that means comparing the isolation possessions resulting from a switched ball screen versus the efficiency of the ball handler in the all other ball screen possessions. In the NBA regular season, the isolation possessions from a switch are roughly .05 to .10 points per possession (PPP) more valuable than the ball screen ball handler possessions. In last year’s playoffs, this number was .13 PPP and its value is accelerating. The table below shows the additional efficiency offered by the isolation in the playoffs over the last 3 years. This is just the NBA average. If a team has an elite offensive player, the gains can be substantial. Look no farther than James Harden. In the 2018 playoffs, Harden averaged almost 6.5 possessions per game from an isolation after a ball screen switch. This was roughly 2 possessions more than the next closest player – LeBron James. It was also almost 2.5 possessions per game more than he averaged in the regular season. He wasn’t just a leader in the volume of these shots. He also had the highest efficiency among players with at least 1 possession per game in last year’s regular season. In the playoffs, the Rockets were even more committed to setting hard screens and forcing their man on to Harden. He then destroyed the mismatch at the rim and from 3: If you expected some sort of regression to the mean or fall off this season, think again. Harden has actually been more efficient than he was last year. Players like Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant have also added this strategy to their repertoire. Which players could effectively add this at the college level? Many are capable, but two names stand out above the rest – Antoine Davis and Markus Howard. The players that have done it the best at the NBA level are both elite shooters and able to break their man down. These are players that can make shots off the dribble. The scatterplot below shows the usage and efficiency of players shooting off the dribble since 2013. Davis’ attempts per game off the dribble are record-smashing: he’s averaging 3 more shots than the next closest player since 2013. Both players have already proven to be super- efficient when isolating after a switched ball screen, but the attempts should drastically increase. Howard is averaging 0.8 ball possessions per game with an incredible efficiency of 1.6 PPP. Davis isn’t far behind averaging 0.4 possessions and 1.13 PPP. The off the dribble shots below illustrates their potential dominance isolating against mismatches: Antoine Davis: Markus Howard: Finding elite players to attack the mismatch after the switch is only part of the equation; identifying the right players to target on defense will only make these possessions more efficient. Last year, NBA teams hunted for mismatches when they noticed that defenses were switching the screen, but it became even more prevalent in the playoffs. No one was targeted in the playoffs more than Steph Curry. He was isolated after the switch 3.5 possessions per game, despite only being targeted 0.35 possessions per game in the regular season. The table below shows the list of the 12 most targeted players in the playoffs ranked by their defensive efficiency. Despite only being targeted 1.7 possessions per game, Turner conceded the most points per possession. For coaches with one or more weak defenders that are likely to be targeted in switches, the best ball screen strategy remains over with a soft hedge to force the ball handler to take the midrange shot. And as with many of the strategies I have written about the returns will be greater for the coaches that are the first movers.
1 Comment
Last year only 40 players shot better than 44.5% on at least 100 attempts from beyond the arc -roughly 1% of all D1 players. So, it’s pretty remarkable that three of them were on the same team – Marquette.
It’s not a coincidence. It’s Wojo. Marquette’s Markus Howard, Andrew Rowsey, and Sam Hauser became just the third trio in the last 20 years to reach this mark from 3. Largely due to their trio’s elite shooting from deep, Marquette led the nation in 3P% at 42.9%. This is a direct result of head coach Steve Wojciechowski’s strategy as he has made decisions in personnel management and game planning to ensure they will outshoot their opponents from 3. This offensive foundation traces back to his time as assistant coach for Mike Krzyzewski at Duke. In his last five seasons as assistant, they averaged 38.5% from 3 - fifth best over that time. Wojo brought these principles with him to Marquette and he is seeing even more success from deep. Last season they led the nation from 3 and are on pace to be among the nation’s highest again this season. All three shooters returned this season looking to build on last season’s success. Markus Howard alone shot a historic 55% from deep - the fourth highest rate in the last 20 years. Wojo puts Howard in a high percentage of ball screens to create space to get his shot off. He had the second highest efficiency in D1 when scoring off of a ball screen on at least 80 possessions. His teammate, Andrew Rowsey, scores in similar ways and was almost as efficient scoring off of a ball screen finishing as the 13th most efficient player. Combined they shot an absurd 46% from 3 and 54% at the rim when attacking off of a ball screen. Finally add in Sam Hauser, who, at 6’8”, creates mismatches with opposing bigs especially in transition, where he shot 61% from 3. Even though Marquette only gets out in transition at an average rate, they had the nation’s fifth highest efficiency in transition. Eight games into this season the percentages are similar to last year - Howard, Rowsey, and Hauser are all shooting over 39% from deep. But Wojo has them shooting even more 3s than last season. They are taking 51% of their shots as 3s - fifth highest in D1. With this increase in 3PA rate, ball screen usage, and transition efficiency the team is looking more and more like the collegiate version of the Houston Rockets or Golden State Warriors. Wojo is ahead of the curve in college basketball and the results will follow. He is setting this team up to attract the best shooting recruits for many seasons to come. This is now the Land of the Three. |
Categories
All
Archives
January 2020
|