In the last article, I discussed that teams are running more of their offense with ball screens. Ball screen usage is up 24% in college basketball since 2013 and the trend is accelerating.
I argued that there are so many options available to an offense using a ball screen, that if you try to guard them all, you will not defend any option well. You will inevitably be forced to give up something. Using the data on all options involved in the ball screen, my suggestion was to force the midrange shot to the ball handler by going over with a soft hedge. However, defenses have another option to counter the value of the ball screen – switching. Switching ball screens is a viable and still underutilized strategy, and it has become more common in the NBA and NCAA as it neutralizes the immediate value of the ball screen and only involves the two players defending the screen. The downside of switching is that after the ball screen is switched, there is an opportunity for the offense to exploit positional/size mismatches. To facilitate and improve the effectiveness of the switch, teams are now rostering players that can cover multiple positions. Coaches want to switch everything, and having players who can guard a larger range of positions reduces the offense’s mismatch advantage. However, NBA offenses are now aggressively attacking the defense’s tendency to switch ball screens. Despite a coach’s desire to be able to switch everything, most teams do not have the defensive talent to truly switch 1 to 5. Offenses are now using the switch to force a mismatch that they can isolate. The table below shows the percentage of ball screen possessions that are isolations resulting from a ball screen switch for both the NBA and the NCAA. Over the last 5 seasons, these isolations continue to increase in the NBA while they have remained constant in college basketball. College coaches should study the NBA and find ways to incorporate this into their offense against switching defenses. This trend is rapidly accelerating in the NBA playoffs and really became noticeable last season. The table below shows the percentage for both the NBA regular season and playoffs. It’s one thing to acknowledge that this strategy is quickly trending upward, but is it providing an analytical advantage? To answer that, it’s best to compare apples to apples. Here, that means comparing the isolation possessions resulting from a switched ball screen versus the efficiency of the ball handler in the all other ball screen possessions. In the NBA regular season, the isolation possessions from a switch are roughly .05 to .10 points per possession (PPP) more valuable than the ball screen ball handler possessions. In last year’s playoffs, this number was .13 PPP and its value is accelerating. The table below shows the additional efficiency offered by the isolation in the playoffs over the last 3 years. This is just the NBA average. If a team has an elite offensive player, the gains can be substantial. Look no farther than James Harden. In the 2018 playoffs, Harden averaged almost 6.5 possessions per game from an isolation after a ball screen switch. This was roughly 2 possessions more than the next closest player – LeBron James. It was also almost 2.5 possessions per game more than he averaged in the regular season. He wasn’t just a leader in the volume of these shots. He also had the highest efficiency among players with at least 1 possession per game in last year’s regular season. In the playoffs, the Rockets were even more committed to setting hard screens and forcing their man on to Harden. He then destroyed the mismatch at the rim and from 3: If you expected some sort of regression to the mean or fall off this season, think again. Harden has actually been more efficient than he was last year. Players like Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant have also added this strategy to their repertoire. Which players could effectively add this at the college level? Many are capable, but two names stand out above the rest – Antoine Davis and Markus Howard. The players that have done it the best at the NBA level are both elite shooters and able to break their man down. These are players that can make shots off the dribble. The scatterplot below shows the usage and efficiency of players shooting off the dribble since 2013. Davis’ attempts per game off the dribble are record-smashing: he’s averaging 3 more shots than the next closest player since 2013. Both players have already proven to be super- efficient when isolating after a switched ball screen, but the attempts should drastically increase. Howard is averaging 0.8 ball possessions per game with an incredible efficiency of 1.6 PPP. Davis isn’t far behind averaging 0.4 possessions and 1.13 PPP. The off the dribble shots below illustrates their potential dominance isolating against mismatches: Antoine Davis: Markus Howard: Finding elite players to attack the mismatch after the switch is only part of the equation; identifying the right players to target on defense will only make these possessions more efficient. Last year, NBA teams hunted for mismatches when they noticed that defenses were switching the screen, but it became even more prevalent in the playoffs. No one was targeted in the playoffs more than Steph Curry. He was isolated after the switch 3.5 possessions per game, despite only being targeted 0.35 possessions per game in the regular season. The table below shows the list of the 12 most targeted players in the playoffs ranked by their defensive efficiency. Despite only being targeted 1.7 possessions per game, Turner conceded the most points per possession. For coaches with one or more weak defenders that are likely to be targeted in switches, the best ball screen strategy remains over with a soft hedge to force the ball handler to take the midrange shot. And as with many of the strategies I have written about the returns will be greater for the coaches that are the first movers.
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One game during the 2018-19 season, Mike Daum will become the all-time leading scorer in NCAA history. One of a few records the junior forward from South Dakota State will eventually claim.
So why isn’t anyone talking about him? In the last 20 years, he is only the second player to average at least 25 PPG and 8 RPG, while shooting 50+% on 2s and 40+% on 3s. The other player? KEVIN DURANT. Daum averaged 15.2 points per game his freshman year only to best that output last season at 25.1 points per game. Now, he enters his junior year as the nation’s highest returning scorer and has the NCAA record books in his crosshairs. Record Breaker! If Daum is projected to score the same total points in each of his final two years, as he did last year, he’d finish third in career points. But most players increase their average in their final years - Lionel Simmons, the current record holder, saw an increase of 17.8% in his PPG average from his sophomore year to his final two seasons. Doug McDermott, third on the list, and the most comparable player to Daum, increased his average by 8.95% over that time. If Daum sees the same increase over his next two years, he’ll claim the title Simmons held for 30 years - most career points in NCAA history. McDermott… but better? Daum’s offensive game and production resemble Doug McDermott’s first two seasons at Creighton. Their sophomore season numbers are almost identical. They even have comparable shot type distributions. Shots coming off of post-ups, handoffs, and screens accounted for 39% of both player’s sophomore year points. The only significant difference between the two player’s shots distributions is in points as the roll-man in a pick and roll. Roll-man points were 12% of Daum’s production last season, while just 8% of McDermott’s sophomore year points. Why is this number so high for Daum? He’s not rolling, he’s popping. He is a pick and pop machine! Film Review: Daum – Pick and Pop Daum was the second most efficient player last season in pick and pop scoring. Defenses knew Daum was popping (he popped on 77% of his ball screens), yet they still could not stop him. Even the fourth best defensive eFG% team, Wichita State, had trouble defending Daum on the pop. Here, Daum does an excellent job sealing the on-ball defender and quickly gets his feet around to prepare himself for an open shot. Later, Daum exhibits a strong secondary move after he pops. Wichita State forward, Markus McDuffie, attempts a quick closeout, but Daum pumps and powers his way to the rim. Prediction He will set the career points record as a senior and will then lead his team to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. It won’t be long before he starts to receive All-American level hype. |
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