I am often asked by coaches, “What is the biggest determinant in winning basketball games?” Coaches often reference thresholds such as needing to attempt X 3s a game or limit their team to under X turnovers. While those thresholds may be good to maintain, they aren’t great measures in real time and aren’t very predictive of the final score. Every game is different – pace, physicality level, and how referees are calling the game are all factors that can cause these thresholds to be obsolete by halftime. DribbleHandoff conducted an extensive study to determine the biggest factor in wins. The analysis showed that 82% of games are won by the team that shot the higher eFG% in the game. Shooting wins games – eFG% is a remarkably strong predictor of game results. Despite eFG% being so predictive by the end of the game, there is a more accurate way to measure games in real time. The problem with eFG% is that the metric only captures the shot results. In games, it is actually better to measure shooting based off of shot quality than it is eFG%. Shot quality is process-based, while eFG% is results-based. ShotQ is DribbleHandoff's innovative and proprietary metric that measures a team's offensive and defensive shot quality. There is a very strong correlation between eFG% and ShotQ, indicating that shot quality is an excellent predictor of shot results. This is what we should expect. Good shots should lead to higher shooting percentages. Everyone has seen a game where one team is making everything in the first eight minutes and therefore, they are clearly winning the eFG% battle. Ultimately, coaches want to know, “Will this last?” Coaches want to know if their defense is working or if they need to change their process and make half-time adjustments. The only metric that can answer these questions is ShotQ. Shot quality provides the necessary insights to understand what has really occurred beneath the surface that eFG% can’t detect. It indicates what is to come. ShotQ is not only predictive within games, but also can provide directional insight of how teams will shoot for the rest of the season. We can compare a team’s eFG% and ShotQ to see the trajectory of their eFG%. For example, on November 30th, Fordham ranked 91st in offensive eFG%, but their ShotQ rank was 268th. This suggested they could see a decline in their shooting percentages over the remainder of the season. They did. By March 8th, Fordham ranked 307th in eFG%. However, ShotQ is not a static figure - it's dynamic. It takes into account every shot for each individual game. Therefore, a team can improve their ShotQ throughout the season by taking better shots. The chart below shows how Texas improved from 205th to 98th in ShotQ. This 107-spot improvement corresponded with a 112-spot drop in their eFG% rank. These charts demonstrate why coaches should be tracking their ShotQ rank throughout the season instead of their eFG%. We can also gain defensive insights by applying a similar process to D ShotQ and defensive eFG%. It's important to value the right shots on both sides of the ball. Only 12 teams finished the season ranked in the top 50 for both offensive and defensive ShotQ. ShotQ is updated daily on this page. Teams need to gear their whole program towards improving shot quality. Everything else in individual coaching platforms ties into it. The players teams recruit, the plays team run, the skills team practice, and the things coaches preach all revolve around shot quality.
3 Comments
Tim
2/27/2020 02:39:21 pm
Very interesting. Would love to learn more about ShotQ
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